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Was the forecast right for Houston on Wed Sep 30?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 26° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the HOU observations — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 26–36; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-15 — 29° — — 37° — — 29–37°
14d · 2026-09-16 32° 26° 31° — 36° — — 26–36°
13d · 2026-09-17 30° 33° 33° — 36° — — 30–36°
12d · 2026-09-18 32° 29° 31° — 30° — — 29–32°
11d · 2026-09-19 25° 32° 25° — 29° — — 25–32°
10d · 2026-09-20 28° 32° 27° — 35° — — 27–35°
9d · 2026-09-21 33° 27° 29° 25° 33° — — 25–33°
8d · 2026-09-22 28° 26° 27° 32° 34° — — 26–34°
7d · 2026-09-23 34° 32° 33° 32° 26° — — 26–34°
6d · 2026-09-24 33° 33° 32° 29° 33° 35° 30° 29–35°
5d · 2026-09-25 33° 34° 32° 33° 34° 34° 33° 32–34°
4d · 2026-09-26 33° 33° 34° 32° 31° 33° 32° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-27 33° 33° 33° 32° 33° 33° 33° 32–33°
2d · 2026-09-28 33° 32° 32° 32° 33° 34° 32° 32–34°
1d · 2026-09-29 33° 33° 32° 33° 33° 33° 32° 32–33°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.