The Spread

Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Sep 7?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 30° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the HOU observations, with 3.6 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-23 — 30° — — 37° — — 30–37°
14d · 2026-08-24 36° 33° — — 35° — — 33–36°
13d · 2026-08-25 33° 30° 34° — 37° — — 30–37°
12d · 2026-08-26 30° 36° 32° — 39° — — 30–39°
11d · 2026-08-27 35° 36° 35° — 39° — — 35–39°
10d · 2026-08-28 36° 35° 31° — 31° — — 31–36°
9d · 2026-08-29 35° 37° 30° — 30° — — 30–37°
8d · 2026-08-30 33° 34° 32° 33° 36° — — 32–36°
7d · 2026-08-31 33° 36° 32° 30° 38° — — 30–38°
6d · 2026-09-01 33° 35° 32° 33° 37° 34° — 32–37°
5d · 2026-09-02 33° 36° 31° 33° 37° 32° 30° 30–37°
4d · 2026-09-03 33° 34° 33° 35° 37° 34° 31° 31–37°
3d · 2026-09-04 33° 35° 32° 33° 36° 33° 35° 32–36°
2d · 2026-09-05 34° 34° 34° 34° 36° 36° 32° 32–36°
1d · 2026-09-06 33° 34° 34° 33° 35° 36° 34° 33–36°
0d · 2026-09-07 33° 35° 33° 34° 35° 33° 34° 33–35°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.