The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Sep 27?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 32° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the HOU observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

13 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-12 — 27° — — 35° — — 27–35°
14d · 2026-09-13 33° 33° — — 32° — — 32–33°
13d · 2026-09-14 33° 32° 33° — 35° — — 32–35°
12d · 2026-09-15 34° 30° 35° — 33° — — 30–35°
11d · 2026-09-16 31° 32° 31° — 38° — — 31–38°
10d · 2026-09-17 29° 30° 32° — 33° — — 29–33°
9d · 2026-09-18 30° 31° 35° 32° 35° — — 30–35°
8d · 2026-09-19 32° 35° 32° 33° 35° — — 32–35°
7d · 2026-09-20 34° 33° 35° 28° 35° — — 28–35°
6d · 2026-09-21 34° 34° 32° 33° 33° 34° 32° 32–34°
5d · 2026-09-22 34° 34° 33° 33° 33° 36° 32° 32–36°
4d · 2026-09-23 33° 33° 35° 32° 32° 34° 33° 32–35°
3d · 2026-09-24 32° 33° 35° 33° 34° 34° 33° 32–35°
2d · 2026-09-25 33° 32° 34° 32° 33° 33° 33° 32–34°
1d · 2026-09-26 32° 33° 33° 33° 33° 33° 33° 32–33°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.