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Was the forecast right for Houston on Thu Jul 30?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Houston's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 35° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

4 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-07-26 35° 35° 38° 36° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
3d · 2026-07-27 34° 36° 37° 37° 39° 36° 36° 34–39°
2d · 2026-07-28 34° 36° 36° 36° 39° 36° 36° 34–39°
1d · 2026-07-29 35° 35° 36° 37° 36° 35° 36° 35–37°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.