Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Oct 18?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 23° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 24° against the HOU observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 29° | — | — | 25° | — | — | 25–29° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 24° | 24° | 24° | — | 23° | — | — | 23–24° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 18° | 25° | 22° | — | 22° | — | — | 18–25° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 19° | 24° | 30° | — | 21° | — | — | 19–30° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 32° | 19° | 24° | — | 26° | — | — | 19–32° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 18° | 24° | 21° | — | 25° | — | — | 18–25° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 20° | 22° | 33° | 22° | 21° | — | — | 20–33° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 22° | 19° | 29° | 20° | 18° | — | — | 18–29° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 27° | 21° | 29° | 25° | 25° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 22° | 26° | 24° | 27° | 28° | 23° | 22–28° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 22° | 22° | 24° | 23° | 26° | 26° | 22° | 22–26° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 22° | 21° | 23° | 23° | 24° | 23° | 22° | 21–24° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 22° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 21° | 21–23° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 22° | 20° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 20–23° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 22° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 21–23° |
| actual | 24° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.