Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Oct 18?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 73° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 75° against the HOU observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.4°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 84° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 74° | 75° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–76° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 78° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 67° | 75° | 86° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 89° | 67° | 75° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–89° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 76° | 69° | — | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 68° | 72° | 91° | 71° | 70° | — | — | 68–91° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 72° | 66° | 85° | 68° | 64° | — | — | 64–85° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 80° | 69° | 84° | 77° | 77° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 72° | 80° | 76° | 81° | 82° | 74° | 72–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 72° | 72° | 76° | 73° | 79° | 79° | 71° | 71–79° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 70° | 73° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 71° | 70–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 72° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 70° | 70–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 72° | 69° | 72° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 71° | 69–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 72° | 70° | 71° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 72° | 70–74° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.