Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Sep 20?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 1° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 33° | — | — | 37° | — | — | 33–37° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 30° | 29° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 29–32° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 33° | 33° | 30° | — | 34° | — | — | 30–34° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 33° | 34° | 29° | — | 35° | — | — | 29–35° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 32° | 35° | 31° | — | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 32° | 30° | 30° | — | 33° | — | — | 30–33° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 34° | 34° | 31° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–34° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 34° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 37° | — | — | 31–37° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 33° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 36° | — | — | 33–36° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 34° | 34° | 33° | 32° | 35° | 37° | — | 32–37° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 34° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 36° | 34° | 33–36° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 34° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 34–36° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 33° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 33° | 33–35° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 33° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 33–35° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 34° | 35° | 35° | 34° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 34–36° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 34° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 33–35° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.