Was the forecast right for Houston on Wed Sep 2?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
11 days out, 4 models put Houston's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 32° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 36° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 35° | 36° | 32° | — | 38° | — | — | 32–38° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 36° | 37° | 36° | — | 38° | — | — | 36–38° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 35° | 34° | 33° | — | 39° | — | — | 33–39° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 36° | 36° | 33° | 36° | 38° | — | — | 33–38° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 36° | 37° | 34° | 35° | 37° | — | — | 34–37° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 35° | 36° | 34° | 34° | 36° | 36° | — | 34–36° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 34° | 36° | 32° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 32° | 32–36° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 34° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 30° | 30–35° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 29° | 27° | 31° | 28° | 33° | 32° | 31° | 27–33° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 30° | 34° | 30° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 30–34° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 29° | 32° | 31° | 31° | 34° | 32° | 31° | 29–34° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 30° | 34° | 32° | 35° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 30–35° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.