Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Aug 10?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 34° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 31° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 7.4 mm of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 32° | — | — | 38° | — | — | 32–38° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 34° | 36° | 34° | — | 39° | — | — | 34–39° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 35° | 36° | 34° | — | 39° | — | — | 34–39° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 35° | 36° | 34° | — | 37° | — | — | 34–37° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 33° | 37° | 31° | — | 39° | — | — | 31–39° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 33° | 37° | 35° | — | 38° | — | — | 33–38° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 34° | 37° | 33° | 35° | 35° | — | — | 33–37° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 31° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 32° | 36° | 31° | 35° | 38° | — | — | 31–38° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 33° | 36° | 32° | 33° | 39° | 36° | 30° | 30–39° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 32° | 35° | 32° | 34° | 38° | 33° | 31° | 31–38° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 32° | 34° | 31° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 29° | 29–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 32° | 32° | 31° | 35° | 35° | 33° | 31° | 31–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 31° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 36° | 32° | 30° | 30–36° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 31° | 32° | 31° | 34° | 30° | 32° | 32° | 30–34° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.