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Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Sep 28?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 30° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°.

13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.2°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-13 — 33° — — 31° — — 31–33°
14d · 2026-09-14 33° 32° — — 34° — — 32–34°
13d · 2026-09-15 34° 30° 34° — 34° — — 30–34°
12d · 2026-09-16 30° 33° 32° — 35° — — 30–35°
11d · 2026-09-17 28° 32° 34° — 34° — — 28–34°
10d · 2026-09-18 30° 31° 35° — 34° — — 30–35°
9d · 2026-09-19 32° 35° 33° 32° 35° — — 32–35°
8d · 2026-09-20 33° 34° 34° 26° 35° — — 26–35°
7d · 2026-09-21 32° 34° 34° 33° 33° — — 32–34°
6d · 2026-09-22 34° 34° 34° 33° 32° 33° — 32–34°
5d · 2026-09-23 33° 34° 35° 32° 32° 33° 34° 32–35°
4d · 2026-09-24 32° 33° 33° 33° 34° 34° 33° 32–34°
3d · 2026-09-25 33° 33° 33° 32° 34° 33° 33° 32–34°
2d · 2026-09-26 33° 33° 33° 32° 33° 33° 34° 32–34°
1d · 2026-09-27 33° 34° 32° 33° 34° 33° 34° 32–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.