The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Sep 19?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the HOU observations — partly cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°.

13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-04 — 33° — — 31° — — 31–33°
14d · 2026-09-05 29° 32° — — 36° — — 29–36°
13d · 2026-09-06 32° 34° 33° — 30° — — 30–34°
12d · 2026-09-07 33° 35° 31° — 33° — — 31–35°
11d · 2026-09-08 33° 35° 29° — 34° — — 29–35°
10d · 2026-09-09 32° 35° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
9d · 2026-09-10 32° 32° 30° — 32° — — 30–32°
8d · 2026-09-11 33° 35° 30° 34° 34° — — 30–35°
7d · 2026-09-12 33° 34° 34° 33° 37° — — 33–37°
6d · 2026-09-13 33° 33° 34° 33° 37° 35° — 33–37°
5d · 2026-09-14 34° 34° 33° 33° 34° 37° 34° 33–37°
4d · 2026-09-15 33° 33° 34° 34° 34° 35° 34° 33–35°
3d · 2026-09-16 33° 33° 34° 34° 34° 34° 34° 33–34°
2d · 2026-09-17 32° 33° 32° 34° 34° 35° 34° 32–35°
1d · 2026-09-18 32° 34° 33° 33° 33° 34° 33° 32–34°
0d · 2026-09-19 33° 34° 34° 33° 33° 33° 34° 33–34°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.