Was the forecast right for Houston on Fri Jul 31?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Houston's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 35° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

5 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-07-26	35°	35°	38°	36°	38°	37°	36°	35–38°
4d · 2026-07-27	35°	37°	37°	37°	39°	37°	37°	35–39°
3d · 2026-07-28	35°	37°	37°	37°	39°	36°	37°	35–39°
2d · 2026-07-29	35°	36°	37°	37°	39°	36°	37°	35–39°
1d · 2026-07-30	35°	36°	36°	37°	36°	36°	37°	35–37°
actual								36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.