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Which weather model is most accurate in Houston?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Houston at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the HOU observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, DWD ICON has been most accurate (typical miss 1.22°F); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF IFS, which has run cool by about 1.99°F at 1-day lead over this window.

Houston's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
DWD ICON 1.2° (-0.1°) 1.8° (+0.5°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.7° (-1.1°) 1.7° (-0.8°) 4.2° (-2.3°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.8° (-0.8°) 2.2° (-1.0°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 1.9° (-0.6°) 2.4° (-1.0°) 4.8° (-3.4°) 29
NOAA GFS 2.0° (-1.5°) 2.8° (-1.1°) 4.3° (-1.5°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.1° (-1.5°) 2.0° (-1.4°) 3.2° (-2.1°) 29
ECMWF IFS 2.7° (-2.0°) 2.0° (-0.7°) 2.9° (-1.5°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Houston point is the Hobby station (HOU), 10 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Hobby (HOU) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 71–88; it hit 79. GEM led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 74–88; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 1.2°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 66–85; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 72–85; it hit 92. GEM led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 76–88; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 86. GFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 73–87; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 70–81; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 79–88; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 76–87; it hit 91. ICON led (off 2.2°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 70–92; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 71–97; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 6°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 76–88; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 87–93; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 1.1°F); GFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 86–97; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 78–96; it hit 93. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 85–97; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 13 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sun Sep 27 13 days out the models said 90–95; it hit 93. GFS led (off 0.9°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 80–93; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 95. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 84–96; it hit 96. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 78–100; it hit 96. ICON led (off 0.1°F).
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 87–91; it hit 93. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 77–101; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 92–95; it hit 93. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 85–99; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 90–96; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 84–104; it hit 94. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 2°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 84–97; it hit 96. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 90–97; it hit 95. GEM led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 88–100; it hit 93. ICON led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 97. ICON led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 82–98; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 90–100; it hit 92. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 89–101; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 87–98; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 90–99; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 1.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 89–106; it hit 91. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 88–103; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 90–102; it hit 93. GEM led (off 1.0°F); UKMO ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 94–101; it hit 93. GEM led (off 1.9°F); GFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 95–100; it hit 96. ICON led (off 3.3°F); AIFS ran 12°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 94–99; it hit 87. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 93–98; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 4.3°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 92–99; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 91–100; it hit 96. AIFS led (off 0.1°F).
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 90–101; it hit 96. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 92–102; it hit 97. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 98–105; it hit 99. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 97–102; it hit 98. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 96–103; it hit 96. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 94–105; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 95–100; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 94–104; it hit 98. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 95–100; it hit 96. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); ICON ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 97–103; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 96–103; it hit 96. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 92–106; it hit 94. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); ICON ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 93–102; it hit 89. GFS led (off 1.6°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 93–102; it hit 88. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 91–100; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 1.5°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 90–101; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 89–100; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 86–103; it hit 91. AIFS led (off 2.5°F); AIGFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 87–100; it hit 96. GFS led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 86–98; it hit 96. ICON led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 85–95; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 90–100; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 94–100; it hit 97. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 95–101; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 94–101; it hit 97. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.

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