Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Aug 17?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 95° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 98°. The day verified at 98° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 96° | — | — | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 98° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 95–100° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 96° | 98° | 96° | — | 104° | — | — | 96–104° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 95° | 97° | 93° | — | 104° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 92° | 100° | 96° | — | 102° | — | — | 92–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 96° | 98° | 97° | — | 101° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 96° | 96° | 95° | 97° | 103° | — | — | 95–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 96° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 101° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 95° | 99° | 96° | 99° | 102° | — | — | 95–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 95° | 99° | 96° | 97° | 102° | 100° | 93° | 93–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 96° | 98° | 97° | 99° | 103° | 98° | 98° | 96–103° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 96° | 98° | 97° | 99° | 102° | 99° | 98° | 96–102° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 95° | 98° | 98° | 99° | 102° | 100° | 97° | 95–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 95° | 99° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 98° | 98° | 95–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 95° | 98° | 98° | 99° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 95–99° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.