Was the forecast right for Houston on Thu Jul 30?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
4 days out, 7 models put Houston's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 94° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 97° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-26 | 95° | 94° | 100° | 97° | 101° | 98° | 99° | 94–101° |
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 98° | 98° | 94–102° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 96° | 96° | 94–102° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 94° | 96° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 95° | 97° | 94–98° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.