Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Sep 6?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 89° to 106°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 91° against the HOU observations, with 0.11 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 98° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 98–101° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 93° | 89° | 95° | — | 106° | — | — | 89–106° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 94° | 94° | 90° | — | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 92° | 98° | 85° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 95° | 97° | 94° | — | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 96° | 97° | 92° | — | 96° | — | — | 92–97° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 96° | 95° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 97° | 90° | 97° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 93° | 91° | 95° | 98° | — | — | 91–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 98° | 93° | 84° | 84–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 90° | 93° | 87° | 88° | 99° | 91° | 101° | 87–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 94° | 88° | 87° | 96° | 92° | 85° | 85–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 91° | 89° | 89° | 97° | 89° | 94° | 89–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 92° | 88° | 87° | 98° | 92° | 88° | 87–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 93° | 91° | 84° | 95° | 93° | 91° | 84–95° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.