Was the forecast right for Houston on Wed Sep 2?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
11 days out, 4 models put Houston's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 95° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 96° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 3.3°. AIFS ran 12° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 95° | 99° | 96° | — | 100° | — | — | 95–100° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 98° | 94° | — | 103° | — | — | 92–103° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 97° | 93° | 97° | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 96° | 99° | 90° | 95° | 98° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 96° | 95° | 93° | 92° | 96° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 97° | 92° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 91° | 91–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 90° | 90° | 93° | 99° | 89° | 90° | 89–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 89° | 88° | 91° | 98° | 93° | 96° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 82° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 93° | 86° | 81–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 86° | 81–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 89° | 84–93° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.