Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Sep 13?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 87° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 93° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 99° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 96–99° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 77° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 94° | 98° | 87° | — | 98° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 87° | 95° | 91° | — | 98° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 98° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 96° | 85° | — | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 93° | 87° | — | 97° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 93° | 86° | 93° | 91° | 95° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 94° | 95° | 92° | 93° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 89° | 99° | 87° | 94° | 95° | 101° | — | 87–101° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 91° | 97° | 89° | 88° | 92° | 100° | 93° | 88–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 90° | 96° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 95° | 90–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 94° | 88° | 92° | 94° | 93° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 95° | 90° | 92° | 94° | 95° | 93° | 90–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 92° | 95° | 90° | 96° | 94° | 94° | 97° | 90–97° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 95° | 89° | 96° | 93° | 92° | 93° | 89–96° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.