Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Sep 27?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 90° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 93° against the HOU observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 81° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 81–95° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 91° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 90–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 92° | 90° | 92° | — | 95° | — | — | 90–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 93° | 86° | 94° | — | 91° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 90° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 85° | 86° | 90° | — | 91° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 87° | 88° | 94° | 89° | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 89° | 95° | 90° | 91° | 94° | — | — | 89–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 93° | 92° | 94° | 83° | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 93° | 93° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 90–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 93° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 96° | 89° | 89–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 91° | 91° | 96° | 90° | 89° | 94° | 92° | 89–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 92° | 94° | 91° | 93° | 94° | 91° | 90–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 91° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 89–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 91° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 90–92° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.