Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Aug 9?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 91° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 90° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.5°. UKMO ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-26 | 93° | 92° | 91° | — | 100° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 13d · 2026-07-27 | 93° | 97° | 96° | — | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-28 | 92° | 96° | 94° | — | 103° | — | — | 92–103° |
| 11d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 94° | 95° | — | 100° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 10d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 95° | 95° | — | 102° | — | — | 88–102° |
| 9d · 2026-07-31 | 93° | 98° | 94° | 94° | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-01 | 92° | 96° | 95° | 95° | 96° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-03 | 92° | 95° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 91° | 88° | 88–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-04 | 92° | 97° | 96° | 93° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 92–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-05 | 91° | 96° | 89° | 94° | 99° | 94° | 97° | 89–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-06 | 92° | 95° | 86° | 94° | 100° | 89° | 92° | 86–100° |
| 2d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 94° | 88° | 96° | 97° | 91° | 94° | 88–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-08 | 92° | 93° | 89° | 96° | 93° | 92° | 96° | 89–96° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.