Was the forecast right for Houston on Wed Sep 30?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 78° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 93° against the HOU observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 83° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 89° | 78° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 91° | 91° | — | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 90° | 83° | 88° | — | 87° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 78° | 90° | 77° | — | 83° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 89° | 80° | — | 95° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 92° | 81° | 84° | 77° | 91° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 78° | 80° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 92° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 80° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 92° | 91° | 90° | 84° | 92° | 96° | 86° | 84–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 91° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 90–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 91° | 90° | 88–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 90–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 91° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 89–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 92° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 90–92° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.