Was the forecast right for Houston on Wed Aug 5?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
10 days out, 4 models put Houston's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 87° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-26 | 87° | 88° | 94° | — | 100° | — | — | 87–100° |
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 97° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 93° | 97° | 97° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 93° | 97° | 95° | 94° | 101° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 95° | 98° | 96° | 93° | 100° | 96° | 96° | 93–100° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 95° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 93° | 96° | 93–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 94° | 97° | 96° | 94° | 101° | 94° | 97° | 94–101° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 95° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 102° | 96° | 96° | 95–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 99° | 97° | 97° | 101° | 94° | 98° | 94–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 95° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 95° | 98° | 95–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.