Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Sep 22?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 78° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 96° against the HOU observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 90° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 90–93° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 78° | 83° | — | 100° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 90° | 83° | 87° | — | 96° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 83° | 90° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 92° | 86° | 83° | — | 96° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 94° | 91° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 93° | 96° | 87° | — | 94° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 92° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 93° | 95° | 96° | 94° | 92° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 93° | 97° | 95° | 96° | 93° | 97° | 96° | 93–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 94° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 95° | 92–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 95° | 96° | 96° | 95° | 95° | 99° | 96° | 95–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 94° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 94–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 95° | 95° | 94° | 96° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 94–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 94° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 95° | 94–96° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.