Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Oct 17?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 76° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 72° against the HOU observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 74° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–74° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 86° | 80° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 81° | 81° | 75° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 65° | 78° | 87° | — | 78° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 66° | 75° | 85° | — | 67° | — | — | 66–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 88° | 77° | 74° | — | 76° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 68° | 84° | 69° | 82° | 86° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 71° | 81° | 92° | 73° | 78° | — | — | 71–92° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 68° | 68° | 85° | 69° | 68° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 67° | 80° | 82° | 75° | 78° | 82° | 67–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 68° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 75° | 68–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 67° | 68° | 71° | 69° | 74° | 71° | 70° | 67–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 68° | 67° | 69° | 70° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 67–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 68° | 67° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 67–71° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 68° | 67° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 67–72° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.