Was the forecast right for Houston on Fri Sep 11?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 82° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 94° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 96° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 97° | 82° | — | 98° | — | — | 82–98° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 82° | 87° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 89° | 79° | 81° | — | 106° | — | — | 79–106° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 95° | 91° | — | 102° | — | — | 91–102° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 98° | 88° | — | 105° | — | — | 88–105° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 93° | 94° | 91° | 95° | 95° | — | — | 91–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 91° | 96° | 91° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 91–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 97° | 92° | 93° | 96° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 94° | 96° | 95° | 92° | 100° | 98° | 96° | 92–100° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 97° | 91° | 94° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 91–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 89° | 96° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 94° | 88° | 92° | 97° | 95° | 96° | 88–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 88° | 93° | 88° | 94° | 91° | 93° | 87° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 93° | 89° | 91° | 94° | 91° | 89° | 87–94° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.