Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Oct 6?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 76° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 91° against the HOU observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.2°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 75° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 85° | 78° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 85° | 87° | 83° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 66° | 80° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 81° | 71° | 87° | — | 76° | — | — | 71–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 73° | 81° | — | 79° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 80° | 80° | 88° | 79° | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 82° | 80° | 82° | 76° | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 87° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 82–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 87° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 85–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 86° | 85° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 88° | 89° | 85–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 85–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 88° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 85–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 88° | 85–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 87° | 86° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 86° | 86–89° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.