Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Sep 7?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 90° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 95° against the HOU observations, with 0.14 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 90° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 94° | 93° | 90° | — | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 99° | 87° | — | 94° | — | — | 87–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 97° | 94° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 96° | 98° | 92° | — | 101° | — | — | 92–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 96° | 99° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 96° | 96° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 97° | 92° | 94° | 100° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 96° | 90° | 84° | 97° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 95° | 88° | 90° | 99° | 90° | 99° | 88–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 95° | 89° | 95° | 97° | 89° | 85° | 85–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 92° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 98° | 88° | 89° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 98° | 92° | 94° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 95° | 95° | 95° | 91–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 93° | 91° | 92° | 93° | 97° | 92° | 91–97° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.