Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Aug 16?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 94° to 104°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 98° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 96° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 94° | 94° | 95° | — | 104° | — | — | 94–104° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 96° | 98° | 94° | — | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 96° | 98° | 96° | — | 101° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 95° | 98° | 87° | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 92° | 100° | 94° | — | 102° | — | — | 92–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 95° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 96° | 97° | 93° | 99° | 103° | — | — | 93–103° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 96° | 98° | 94° | 98° | 102° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 96° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 95° | 95–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 95° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 103° | 99° | 99° | 95–103° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 95° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 103° | 99° | 97° | 95–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 95° | 98° | 96° | 99° | 101° | 99° | 98° | 95–101° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 94° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 102° | 98° | 98° | 94–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 95° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 95–98° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.