Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Sep 26?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 83° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 91° against the HOU observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 82° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 83° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 93° | 89° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 90° | 91° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 90–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 91° | 91° | 99° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 90° | 93° | 86° | — | 99° | — | — | 86–99° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 90° | 84° | 92° | 87° | 92° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 92° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 91–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 93° | 92° | 94° | 92° | 96° | 93° | 91° | 91–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 93° | 91° | 93° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 91–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 93° | 92° | 89–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 90° | 92° | 86° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 89° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 88–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 89° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 89–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.