Was the forecast right for Houston on Mon Oct 5?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 21° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 31° against the HOU observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 31° | — | — | 28° | — | — | 28–31° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 33° | 25° | 27° | — | 21° | — | — | 21–33° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 32° | 23° | 30° | — | 33° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 28° | 30° | 25° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 28° | 25° | 26° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–28° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 28° | 26° | 30° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–30° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 31° | 24° | 28° | 26° | 26° | — | — | 24–31° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 25° | 25° | 32° | 24° | 32° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 29° | 26° | 27° | 23° | 27° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 30° | 29° | 28° | 27° | 30° | 28° | 27° | 27–30° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 30° | 29° | 31° | 28° | 32° | 30° | 28° | 28–32° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 30° | 29° | 31° | 29° | 28° | 31° | 31° | 28–31° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 30° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 25° | 31° | 31° | 25–31° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 30° | 29° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 31° | 30° | 29–31° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 29° | 28° | 30° | 28° | 30° | 31° | 30° | 28–31° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.