The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Aug 29?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

7 days out, 5 models put Houston's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 33° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the HOU observations — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°.

7 days out the models said 33–38; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-22 36° 37° 33° 36° 38° — — 33–38°
6d · 2026-08-23 36° 37° 32° 36° 38° 31° 32° 31–38°
5d · 2026-08-24 36° 37° 35° 35° 37° 32° 38° 32–38°
4d · 2026-08-25 35° 37° 33° 35° 37° 36° 38° 33–38°
3d · 2026-08-26 35° 37° 33° 37° 34° 33° 37° 33–37°
2d · 2026-08-27 34° 37° 33° 35° 38° 36° 36° 33–38°
1d · 2026-08-28 36° 36° 36° 36° 36° 36° 36° 36–36°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.