Which weather model is most accurate in Minneapolis?

Outlook Model accuracy

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Minneapolis at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the MSP observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF IFS (2.27°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 3.32°C at 3-day lead over this window.

The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.99°C typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model	1-day	3-day	7-day	Days
ECMWF IFS	1.2° (+0.0°)	1.5° (-0.2°)	2.3° (+0.0°)	30
ECMWF AIFS (AI)	1.2° (-0.9°)	1.8° (-1.4°)	2.7° (-2.1°)	30
UKMO (UK)	1.2° (-0.2°)	1.5° (-0.5°)	—	30
NOAA AIGFS (AI)	1.3° (-0.7°)	1.9° (-1.2°)	3.3° (-3.0°)	30
DWD ICON	1.3° (-0.7°)	1.4° (-0.7°)	—	30
GEM (Canada)	1.4° (+0.8°)	2.2° (-1.8°)	3.1° (-2.6°)	30
NOAA GFS	3.0° (+3.0°)	3.5° (+3.3°)	2.9° (+2.4°)	30
NBM (US blend)	1.4° (-1.0°)	1.5° (-1.1°)	2.2° (-1.6°)	30
Blended (bias-corrected)	1.0° (+0.0°)	1.2° (+0.0°)	1.5° (+0.0°)	30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Minneapolis point is the Minneapolis-St Paul Intl station (MSP), 11 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is MSP observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

Tue Sep 1 9 days out the models said 20–30; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
Mon Aug 31 8 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.8°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cold.
Sun Aug 30 7 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 7°C hot.
Sat Aug 29 6 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
Fri Aug 28 5 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
Thu Aug 27 4 days out the models said 25–28; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Wed Aug 26 3 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
Thu Aug 20 13 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
Wed Aug 19 13 days out the models said 24–27; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 4°C cold.
Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 21–32; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 5°C hot.
Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 5°C hot.
Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 22–34; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 23–38; it hit 30. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 24–38; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.
Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 27–29; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.4°C).
Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 25–35; it hit 25. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ICON ran 1°C cold.
Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 28–41; it hit 30. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.
Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 5°C hot.
Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 28–37; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.
Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 24–33; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold.
Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.

Other cities

Atlanta, Georgia Berlin, State of Berlin Boston, Massachusetts Buffalo, New York Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Dallas, Texas Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Houston, Texas London, England Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Milan, Lombardy New Orleans, Louisiana New York, New York Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Orlando, Florida Paris, Île-de-France Region Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Phoenix, Arizona Salt Lake City, Utah San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Washington, District of Columbia

The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.