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Which weather model is most accurate in Minneapolis?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Minneapolis at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the MSP observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 1.67°C at 1-day lead over this window.

Minneapolis's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
GEM (Canada) 1.1° (+0.1°) 1.7° (-0.7°) 3.5° (+0.1°) 29
NOAA GFS 1.2° (+0.1°) 1.5° (-0.2°) 3.9° (+0.1°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.4° (-1.2°) 1.7° (-1.2°) 3.2° (-1.2°) 29
DWD ICON 1.4° (-0.9°) 2.3° (-1.0°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.8° (-1.7°) 1.8° (-1.5°) 3.5° (-1.1°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.9° (-0.8°) 2.2° (-0.4°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 1.9° (-0.8°) 1.9° (-0.8°) 3.3° (-0.5°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Minneapolis point is the Minneapolis–St Paul Airport station (MSP), 11 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Minneapolis–St Paul Airport (MSP) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 6–11; it hit 12. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 10–22; it hit 11. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 8–26; it hit 13. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 16–23; it hit 14. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 9°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 14–22; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 14–20; it hit 32. ICON led (off 1.0°C); UKMO ran 5°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 16–26; it hit 32. GFS led (off 1.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 20–26; it hit 23. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 12–25; it hit 19. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 8–20; it hit 23. AIFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 12–20; it hit 28. GFS led (off 2.1°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 16–22; it hit 20. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 17–21; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 13–21; it hit 22. GEM led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 18. GEM led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 19. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 20–24; it hit 22. AIFS led (off 1.2°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 16–22; it hit 20. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 22. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 1°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 20–31; it hit 16. GFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 18–27; it hit 20. GFS led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 13–23; it hit 21. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 18–24; it hit 19. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 19–24; it hit 17. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 13–27; it hit 19. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 18–28; it hit 17. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 13 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 17. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 19–34; it hit 23. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 19–32; it hit 24. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 22. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 22–32; it hit 16. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 5°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 20–36; it hit 22. GFS led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 19–30; it hit 24. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 21–28; it hit 30. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 20–29; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 19–29; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 28. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 19–29; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 20–29; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.7°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 22–31; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.9°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 21–32; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 34. GEM led (off 1.0°C); ECMWF ran 6°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 25–31; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 7°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 19–28; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 1.0°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 20 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 22–36; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 23–41; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 1°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 27–31; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.5°C); GFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 6°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 25–34; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 26–38; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 30. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 27–36; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 27–31; it hit 28. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 27–37; it hit 25. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 29–39; it hit 30. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 28–38; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 5°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.

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