Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Aug 31?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
9 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 23° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 34° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 29° | 25° | 23° | 25° | 28° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 30° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 36° | — | — | 26–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 28° | 26° | 28° | 28° | 23° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 29° | 25° | 29° | 31° | 33° | 25° | 28° | 25–33° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 30° | 32° | 28° | 30° | 40° | 29° | 30° | 28–40° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 38° | 28° | 31° | 28–38° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 29° | 32° | 31° | 32° | 39° | 34° | 30° | 29–39° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 29° | 31° | 29° | 30° | 40° | 32° | 30° | 29–40° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 31° | 32° | 28° | 33° | 37° | 30° | 31° | 28–37° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.