Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Oct 25?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 8° to 12°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 12°. The day verified at 13° against the MSP observations, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 19° | — | — | 11° | — | — | 11–19° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 8° | 9° | 10° | — | 12° | — | — | 8–12° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 8° | 11° | — | 11° | — | — | 8–11° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 12° | 12° | 16° | — | 11° | — | — | 11–16° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 11° | 14° | 16° | — | 12° | — | — | 11–16° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 17° | 14° | 22° | — | 13° | — | — | 13–22° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 13° | 8° | 12° | 18° | 12° | — | — | 8–18° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 17° | 19° | 20° | 20° | 10° | — | — | 10–20° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 14° | 15° | 19° | 21° | 11° | — | — | 11–21° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 13° | 17° | 21° | 14° | 18° | 21° | 16° | 13–21° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 13° | 13° | 13° | 16° | 15° | 18° | 15° | 13–18° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 12° | 13° | 13° | 14° | 17° | 12° | 12° | 12–17° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 12° | 12° | 15° | 13° | 16° | 12° | 13° | 12–16° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 12° | 12° | 12° | 12° | 15° | 11° | 14° | 11–15° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 12° | 12° | 14° | 11° | 13° | 10° | 15° | 10–15° |
| actual | 13° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.