Which weather model is most accurate in Minneapolis?

Outlook Model accuracy

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Minneapolis at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the MSP observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF IFS (4.09°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 5.98°F at 3-day lead over this window.

The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.79°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model	1-day	3-day	7-day	Days
ECMWF IFS	2.2° (+0.0°)	2.7° (-0.3°)	4.1° (+0.0°)	30
ECMWF AIFS (AI)	2.2° (-1.6°)	3.2° (-2.4°)	4.9° (-3.7°)	30
UKMO (UK)	2.2° (-0.4°)	2.8° (-0.9°)	—	30
NOAA AIGFS (AI)	2.3° (-1.3°)	3.4° (-2.1°)	5.9° (-5.4°)	30
DWD ICON	2.4° (-1.3°)	2.4° (-1.3°)	—	30
GEM (Canada)	2.5° (+1.4°)	3.9° (-3.2°)	5.7° (-4.8°)	30
NOAA GFS	5.4° (+5.3°)	6.3° (+6.0°)	5.2° (+4.3°)	30
NBM (US blend)	2.6° (-1.9°)	2.8° (-2.0°)	4.0° (-2.9°)	30
Blended (bias-corrected)	1.8° (+0.0°)	2.2° (+0.0°)	2.7° (+0.0°)	30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Minneapolis point is the Minneapolis-St Paul Intl station (MSP), 7 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is MSP observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

Tue Sep 1 9 days out the models said 68–85; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 5°F cold.
Mon Aug 31 8 days out the models said 71–83; it hit 93. GEM led (off 1.5°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cold.
Sun Aug 30 7 days out the models said 73–83; it hit 87. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 12°F hot.
Sat Aug 29 6 days out the models said 77–81; it hit 83. AIGFS led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
Fri Aug 28 5 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 5°F hot.
Thu Aug 27 4 days out the models said 76–83; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
Wed Aug 26 3 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F hot.
Thu Aug 20 13 days out the models said 83–97; it hit 81. AIGFS led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
Wed Aug 19 13 days out the models said 75–81; it hit 81. ICON led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 3°F hot.
Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 72–82; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 8°F cold.
Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 74–83; it hit 84. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 3°F hot.
Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 70–90; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cold.
Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 82–89; it hit 80. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 3°F hot.
Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 79–88; it hit 81. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); GEM ran 9°F hot.
Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 74–84; it hit 80. ICON led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 10°F hot.
Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 74–86; it hit 90. ICON led (off 1.2°F); UKMO ran 3°F cold.
Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 73–93; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 72–94; it hit 87. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 73–100; it hit 85. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 75–100; it hit 83. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 74–93; it hit 81. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 4°F cold.
Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 82. ICON led (off 1.0°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 80–84; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 0.7°F).
Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 77–94; it hit 77. UKMO led (off 1.0°F); ICON ran 2°F cold.
Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 83–106; it hit 86. GFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 9°F hot.
Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 83–98; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 75–92; it hit 78. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cold.
Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 87–97; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.8°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.

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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.