Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Aug 15?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 77° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 80° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 77° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 81° | 77° | — | 92° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 82° | 74° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 78° | 69° | 79° | — | 88° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 73° | 74° | 75° | — | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 69° | 77° | 85° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 72° | 79° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 73° | 66° | 84° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 76° | 69° | 81° | 69° | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 76° | 73° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 71° | 81° | 71–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 79° | 79° | 82° | 73° | 75° | 72° | 78° | 72–82° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 83° | 84° | 81° | 75° | 83° | 71° | 77° | 71–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 79° | 86° | 86° | 77° | 92° | 81° | 81° | 77–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 79° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 79–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 80° | 82° | 82° | 86° | 88° | 82° | 84° | 80–88° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.