Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Oct 15?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 51° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 52°. The day verified at 51° against the MSP observations, with 0.69 in of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 49° | — | — | 48° | — | — | 48–49° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 67° | 72° | 51° | — | 70° | — | — | 51–72° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 45° | 42° | 58° | — | 63° | — | — | 42–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 57° | 57° | 55° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–57° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 56° | 65° | — | 43° | — | — | 43–65° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 60° | 71° | — | 62° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 63° | 60° | 62° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–63° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 55° | 51° | 53° | 60° | 67° | — | — | 51–67° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 63° | 65° | 66° | 57° | 73° | — | — | 57–73° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 57° | 61° | 59° | 62° | 55° | 66° | 61° | 55–66° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 52° | 57° | 59° | 58° | 59° | 55° | 56° | 52–59° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 51° | 57° | 58° | 60° | 65° | 58° | 51–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 52° | 56° | 58° | 53° | 61° | 53° | 52–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 50° | 49° | 56° | 50° | 54° | 55° | 52° | 49–56° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 50° | 49° | 55° | 51° | 52° | 52° | 54° | 49–55° |
| actual | 51° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.