Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Oct 23?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 49° to 60°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 76° against the MSP observations — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.8°. GFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 59° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 59–59° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 60° | 49° | 55° | — | 59° | — | — | 49–60° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 54° | 53° | 55° | — | 56° | — | — | 53–56° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 51° | 63° | 53° | — | 47° | — | — | 47–63° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 67° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–67° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 58° | 54° | 55° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–58° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 75° | 65° | 70° | 70° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 77° | 76° | 72° | 73° | 75° | — | — | 72–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 74° | 74° | 71° | 65° | 75° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 76° | 76° | 66° | 68° | 74° | 65° | 66° | 65–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 74° | 74° | 64° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 62° | 62–74° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 75° | 70° | 66° | 69° | 75° | 72° | 70° | 66–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 76° | 74° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 71° | 67° | 67–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 77° | 73° | 74° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 70–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 71° | 74° | 72° | 71–74° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.