Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Aug 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 81° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 77° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 85° | 82° | 81° | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 83° | 79° | 90° | 81° | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 80° | 77° | 86° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 72° | 82° | 85° | 80° | 83° | 87° | 72–87° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 73° | 74° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 73–83° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 74° | 71° | 82° | 76° | 84° | 79° | 77° | 71–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 74° | 76° | 77° | 81° | 86° | 78° | 83° | 74–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 75° | 77° | 77° | 79° | 84° | 77° | 80° | 75–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 75° | 77° | 74° | 80° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 74–80° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.