Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Aug 8?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 83° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 83° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 85° | 95° | — | 88° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 12d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 79° | 84° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 11d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 78° | 93° | — | 102° | — | — | 78–102° |
| 10d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 80° | 84° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 9d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 80° | 94° | 76° | 85° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 8d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 86° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 81° | 87° | 77° | 98° | — | — | 77–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 81° | 90° | 85° | 104° | 92° | 89° | 81–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 101° | 87° | 85° | 80–101° |
| 4d · 2026-08-04 | 82° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 95° | 83° | 83° | 80–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 82° | 86° | 86° | 93° | 84° | 83° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-06 | 82° | 82° | 85° | 83° | 92° | 85° | 85° | 82–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-07 | 82° | 81° | 83° | 87° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 81–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.