Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Sep 10?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 73° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 81° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 77° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–77° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 71° | 68° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 68–71° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 81° | 73° | 78° | — | 83° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 81° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 78° | 61° | — | 75° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 70° | 76° | 76° | — | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 90° | 82° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 73° | 77° | 79° | 76° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 72° | 81° | 70° | 80° | 78° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 73° | 72° | 77° | 76° | 67° | — | 67–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 80° | 82° | 75° | 82° | 76° | 76° | 75–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 72° | 84° | 77° | 81° | 72–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 84° | 79° | 78° | 74–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 83° | 77° | 80° | 75–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 79° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 78° | 81° | 78–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 78° | 81° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 78–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.