Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Sep 7?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 67° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 85° against the MSP observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. UKMO ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 78° | — | — | 63° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 69° | 67° | — | 85° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 75° | 71° | 72° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–75° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 74° | 64° | 80° | — | 76° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 80° | 74° | 87° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 81° | 92° | — | 104° | — | — | 78–104° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 79° | 98° | 93° | 88° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 75° | 83° | 89° | 87° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 86° | 69° | 85° | 88° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 85° | 77° | 77–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 85° | 81° | 79° | 78° | 88° | 81° | 78–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 81° | 77° | 83° | 84° | 76° | 84° | 76–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 87° | 79° | 77° | 77–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 81° | 85° | 79° | 84° | 78° | 82° | 78–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 79° | 84° | 84° | 78° | 84° | 82° | 76° | 76–84° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.