Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Oct 26?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 50° to 63°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 48°. The day verified at 49° against the MSP observations, with 0.38 in of precipitation — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 49° | — | — | 50° | — | — | 49–50° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 49° | 44° | — | 56° | — | — | 44–56° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 50° | 62° | — | 57° | — | — | 50–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 53° | 55° | 55° | — | 51° | — | — | 51–55° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 50° | 61° | 58° | — | 53° | — | — | 50–61° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 55° | 53° | — | 54° | — | — | 53–62° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 66° | 67° | 56° | 69° | 62° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 46° | 57° | 67° | 66° | 47° | — | — | 46–67° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 46° | 63° | 52° | 62° | 50° | — | — | 46–63° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 47° | 50° | 47° | 61° | 48° | 60° | 56° | 47–61° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 49° | 46° | 51° | 58° | 50° | 46° | 49° | 46–58° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 50° | 45° | 53° | 58° | 52° | 60° | 49° | 45–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 48° | 46° | 49° | 50° | 49° | 48° | 51° | 46–51° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 48° | 49° | 50° | 46° | 51° | 47° | 50° | 46–51° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 47° | 48° | 50° | 47° | 50° | 48° | 50° | 47–50° |
| actual | 49° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.