Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Oct 26?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 10° to 17°; by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 9°. The day verified at 9° against the MSP observations, with 9.7 mm of precipitation.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 1° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Forecast highs for Mon Oct 26 as each model's run approached it, recorded from the last archived model run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are omitted because they average the other models.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 9° | — | — | 10° | — | — | 9–10° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 10° | 7° | — | 13° | — | — | 7–13° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 17° | 10° | 17° | — | 14° | — | — | 10–17° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 12° | 13° | 13° | — | 11° | — | — | 11–13° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 10° | 16° | 14° | — | 12° | — | — | 10–16° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 16° | 13° | 12° | — | 12° | — | — | 12–16° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 19° | 19° | 13° | 21° | 16° | — | — | 13–21° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 8° | 14° | 19° | 19° | 8° | — | — | 8–19° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 8° | 17° | 11° | 17° | 10° | — | — | 8–17° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 8° | 10° | 8° | 16° | 9° | 16° | 13° | 8–16° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 9° | 8° | 10° | 14° | 10° | 8° | 9° | 8–14° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 10° | 7° | 12° | 14° | 11° | 15° | 9° | 7–15° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 9° | 8° | 9° | 10° | 9° | 9° | 10° | 8–10° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 9° | 9° | 10° | 8° | 10° | 8° | 10° | 8–10° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 8° | 9° | 10° | 8° | 10° | 9° | 10° | 8–10° |
| actual | 9° |
What one day can show
A score for one day isn't very meaningful; a useful ranking needs many days of data. See which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis, or in every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time they were recorded by The Spread; nothing is reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.