Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Sep 21?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 67° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 62° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 65° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 70° | 76° | 67° | — | 76° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 71° | 72° | 60° | — | 70° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 77° | 58° | — | 83° | — | — | 58–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 67° | 61° | 62° | — | 72° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 63° | 70° | 65° | — | 68° | — | — | 63–70° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 63° | 68° | 71° | 68° | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 64° | 64° | 71° | 71° | 60° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 65° | 59° | 67° | 68° | 68° | — | — | 59–68° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 60° | 58° | 59° | 64° | 56° | 64° | 69° | 56–69° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 58° | 62° | 62° | 65° | 58° | 63° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 61° | 61° | 66° | 66° | 60° | 60° | 67° | 60–67° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 60° | 64° | 63° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 68° | 60–68° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 58° | 58° | 59° | 65° | 60° | 64° | 60° | 58–65° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 59° | 56° | 58° | 62° | 56° | 60° | 61° | 56–62° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.