Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Sep 15?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 54° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 72° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 59° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 64° | 76° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 69° | 54° | 94° | — | 90° | — | — | 54–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 76° | 87° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 64° | 83° | 81° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 77° | 67° | 77° | — | 75° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 74° | 64° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 64° | 58° | 64° | 61° | 64° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 70° | 75° | 66° | 69° | 66° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 74° | 72° | 66° | 69° | 69° | 69° | — | 66–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 67° | 65° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 75° | 71° | 65–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 67° | 65° | 68° | 68° | 72° | 68° | 69° | 65–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 67° | 67° | 70° | 66° | 69° | 70° | 71° | 66–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 66° | 69° | 66° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 73° | 69° | 72° | 67–73° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.