Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Sep 20?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 71° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 66° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 62° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 65° | 52° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 52–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 72° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 61° | 69° | 73° | — | 78° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 60° | 61° | 68° | — | 73° | — | — | 60–73° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 77° | 78° | 77° | — | 85° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 65° | 74° | 63° | — | 72° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 67° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 80° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 74° | 65° | 71° | 67° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 65° | 68° | 66° | 73° | 68° | 66° | — | 65–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 67° | 69° | 63° | 66° | 63° | 63° | 73° | 63–73° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 67° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 73° | 66–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 66° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 68° | 70° | 67–70° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 66° | 66° | 67° | 69° | 68° | 69° | 70° | 66–70° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.