Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Sep 19?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 56° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 62° against the MSP observations, with 0.21 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 65° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 65–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 76° | 60° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 60–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 56° | 59° | — | 82° | — | — | 56–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 58° | 71° | — | 86° | — | — | 58–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 62° | 66° | 66° | — | 63° | — | — | 62–66° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 66° | 62° | 75° | — | 81° | — | — | 62–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 70° | 79° | 75° | — | 83° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 77° | 70° | 75° | 72° | — | — | 70–77° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 72° | 69° | 66° | 76° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 72° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 68° | 70° | — | 68–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 66° | 68° | 74° | 76° | 66° | 67° | 72° | 66–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 63° | 65° | 67° | 63° | 58° | 66° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 64° | 61° | 69° | 66° | 58° | 65° | 70° | 58–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 63° | 58° | 68° | 64° | 58° | 65° | 68° | 58–68° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 63° | 58° | 68° | 62° | 60° | 63° | 65° | 58–68° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 62° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 59° | 61° | 64° | 59–64° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.