Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Oct 16?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 43° to 52°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 51°. The day verified at 53° against the MSP observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 63° | — | — | 58° | — | — | 58–63° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 43° | 44° | 52° | — | 52° | — | — | 43–52° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 53° | 51° | 54° | — | 47° | — | — | 47–54° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 59° | 55° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–62° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 54° | 65° | 61° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–65° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 48° | 50° | 53° | — | 51° | — | — | 48–53° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 58° | 45° | 48° | 52° | 58° | — | — | 45–58° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 46° | 57° | 51° | 49° | 53° | — | — | 46–57° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 53° | 52° | 58° | 45° | 53° | — | — | 45–58° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 50° | 48° | 56° | 51° | 52° | 51° | 56° | 48–56° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 54° | 47° | 58° | 54° | 51° | 53° | 57° | 47–58° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 49° | 56° | 52° | 53° | 54° | 55° | 49–56° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 48° | 48° | 53° | 51° | 53° | 52° | 53° | 48–53° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 50° | 48° | 52° | 47° | 51° | 51° | 53° | 47–53° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 50° | 48° | 52° | 51° | 53° | 50° | 53° | 48–53° |
| actual | 53° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.