Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Sep 2?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
11 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 70° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the MSP observations, with 0.04 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 81° | 71° | 70° | — | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 83° | 70° | — | 83° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 78° | 88° | 82° | 75° | 100° | — | — | 75–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 83° | 78° | 69° | 86° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 101° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 80° | 85° | 78° | 100° | 88° | 84° | 78–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 81° | 89° | 77° | 88° | 87° | 80° | 77–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 81° | 88° | 82° | 92° | 80° | 83° | 80–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 87° | 80° | 81° | 80–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 83° | 78° | 82° | 88° | 83° | 84° | 78–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 90° | 86° | 83° | 83–90° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.